The Epicenter of Nuclear Growth
The Ux Consulting Company (UxC) is pleased to announce a new special report on China’s Nuclear Energy Program after Fukushima. This comprehensive report analyzes China’s current nuclear industry status and prospects for the future in light of the Fukushima accident in Japan of March 11, 2011. For this study, UxC is combining its deep in-house knowledge on China’s nuclear industry with the expertise of Special Consultant, Dr. Yun Zhou, a respected authority on all aspects of China’s nuclear program. Dr. Zhou shares her time working as a Consultant to UxC as well as a Fellow at Harvard University.
Although no other country in the world still comes close to matching China’s ambitions for nuclear power expansion, the Fukushima accident has already created extensive ripple effects throughout the country’s nuclear program. As of early April 2012, China had 15 operating reactors with 11.8 gigawatts-electric (GWe) in net capacity. This is set to increase to 41 units and roughly 39 GWe by the end of 2015 given the 26 reactors currently under construction. However, as the nation’s policymakers debate the results of safety evaluations and implement new reactor regulations following the Fukushima accident, there are many new questions being asked, such as:
- What will China’s nuclear capacity be in 2020? How about 2030?
- Which reactor technologies will be approved after Fukushima?
- What are the impacts on the leading nuclear industry companies?
- What is the future of China’s nuclear fuel cycle program?
- What are the primary impediments to expansion of nuclear power?
UxC has carefully reviewed all available information on China’s nuclear energy activities from both primary and secondary sources in order to produce the most fact-based, credible assessments for the country’s reactor expansion and fuel cycle development. This report covers the following elements with emphasis on understanding the impacts of Fukushima in China:
China’s Overall Energy Situation
Given the country’s fast pace of economic development, it is critical to evaluate the reasons why China is still pursuing nuclear power and how it fits into the country’s broader energy mix.
Nuclear Power Program
In order to accurately forecast China’s nuclear reactor growth after Fukushima, we analyze all key issues, including the new policy and regulatory framework, reactions by industry, impacts on the reactor supply chain, financing, and human resources, as well as individual nuclear plant projects and related reactor technology choices.
Front-End Fuel Cycle Program
Whatever the direction of reactor growth, China will require significant fuel supplies. Thus, we analyze the entire cycle, including uranium mining and milling, conversion, enrichment, and fabrication. Emphasis is placed on forecasting the future balance between domestic supplies and foreign imports.
Back-End Fuel Cycle Program
While still in its early stages, China’s back-end program will expand as well. Our analysis looks at interim spent fuel storage, reprocessing and MOX fuel, along with high-level and low-level radioactive waste management.
Conclusions & Forecasts
The report concludes with detailed analysis of the near- and long-term fallout from changes after Fukushima along with an evaluation of the key strengths and main challenges for China’s future nuclear power growth and fuel cycle programs.
UxC is also planning to offer an accompanying quarterly updating service on China’s nuclear program for 2012, also under the direction of Dr. Yun Zhou. The next few years will be critical for China’s nuclear energy program as a new President and a new Premier will both be inaugurated, and any final action in the nuclear power arena is expected to await the transition to the new state leadership. Additional key developments will include the expected passage of a new Atomic Energy Law as well as a new Nuclear Safety Regulatory Regime, which will determine the manner and pace of the next phase of reactor construction in the country. Given China’s critical position in the world nuclear markets – representing roughly 50% of all likely new reactor growth through 2020 – understanding the ongoing developments in China will be crucial in predicting the future path of our global industry.
UxC's new special report on China’s Nuclear Energy Market after Fukushima is available for immediate purchase. The standard price for this report is US$4,000.00 payable upon receipt of invoice by check, credit card, or wire transfer. Discounts are available for existing customers of UxC's Market Outlook report products as well as customers of UxC’s previous Geopolitics Series report on China.
An add-on subscription for the next 4 quarterly status updates on China is also available if you purchase this new report. The standard price for 4 updates is US$1,000.00.
An online order form is now available.
Please see our product flier and table of contents in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.