Responding to the Supply Gap
Everything in the nuclear fuel cycle begins with the mining of natural uranium concentrates. The uranium market has undergone multiple production and price cycles since the dawn of the nuclear age, and as of 2025, the market is again experiencing significant upward pressure on prices as supply and demand fundamentals continue to tighten.
Uranium demand is a key driver in the nuclear fuel market, and there have been numerous shifts in the nature and pace of uranium purchasing. As utilities focus on long-term contracting to satisfy current and future reactor needs, the spot uranium market has seen dramatic volatility since 2020 due to several major market shocks. These unanticipated events have affected both supply and demand, but they have been especially impactful in terms of reducing overhanging inventories and material available to the spot market. These successive shocks include the COVID-19 pandemic, the entry of major financial buyers of physical uranium (including the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust), and fallout from Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine.
While the market has seen rapid, notable price increases, the supply side has been somewhat slow to respond, with only a handful of new production brought online in recent years. As a result, there is growing concern that uranium production could fall short of the rising global demand for nuclear fuel by the 2030s.
Complete Market Analysis
UxC’s Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) report is designed to examine developments and discern trends in the uranium market, including the likely future course of prices under different market scenarios. Each report includes in-depth market coverage, such as spot and term contracting reviews, supply and demand forecast scenarios to 2045, price and market trends analysis, as well as multiple data compilations to fully understand the latest market trends. In addition, report includes a detailed topical essay examining key market issues and developments.
A table of contents from a previous report has been provided for your review.
Special Issue Offer
Each quarter, UxC releases a new Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) that contains detailed up-to-date analysis on the uranium market. UxC makes available any individual report for sale as a stand alone report. In each UMO, topical essays are devoted to topics such as current market developments, major market events, and long-term market trends.
This quarter's essay, "Financials in the Physical Uranium Market," examines how financials have impacted the uranium market over the past two decades in terms of buying and selling activity, spot prices, and market behavior. This analysis also delves into the mobility of the large amount of uranium currently held by financials and possible future trends related to financial players in the uranium market.
An annual subscription to the UMO costs US$8,500.00, which includes four quarterly reports as well as monthly price indicator updates.
UxC also makes this quarter's UMO available as a special single report order at a rate of US$5,000.00.
An online order form has been provided.
Please note that this special offer only covers this quarter's UMO report. It does not include services associated with a full year's subscription as discussed below: such as three additional quarterly reports, the monthly leading spot price indicator updates, and access to UxC's Subscriber Services website.
The Uranium Market Outlook is a quarterly report on the uranium market that examines recent and prospective spot and long-term contract market activity, supply and demand trends, supplier developments, and the outlook for prices over the short and long term. The UMO also includes a topical essay on important developments that are shaping the market and detailed findings from UxC's proprietary indicator system that analyzes trends in key factors influencing future prices. UxC also includes uranium demand forecasts based on the proprietary UxC Requirements Model (URM). Please see our product flier in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.
Standard Features
- An executive summary is provided with a concise overview of the current market situation. The executive summary is also emailed to subscribers.
- Chapter 1 contains a topical essay that addresses key events and their potential impact on the market. Examples of past essays are listed here.
- In Chapter 2 - Recent Contracting Review, recent spot and long-term market activity over the previous quarter is reviewed, and current contract terms and conditions are summarized.
- Chapter 3 - Requirements and Demand Outlook looks at recent developments affecting reactor requirements in the world's regional markets, along with a review of requirements forecasts. An updated view on uncovered utility reactor requirements is also presented. This section also examines the spot demand outlook over the next three years and the long-term contract demand outlook over the next 12 months.
- Chapter 4 - Production and Supply Outlook reviews recent production developments worldwide and the current status of major world projects. Also examined are secondary supplies projected to influence the market over the forecast period.
- Following the production and supply chapter is Chapter 5 - Near-Term Technical Analysis & Spot Market Indicators, which presents a technical analysis of near-term price movements and a detailed update of the long-term spot price indicators, designed by UxC to quantify market factors that are affecting price outlook two years forward. Included with a subscription to the quarterly report are monthly updates of UxC's near-term price indicators, a predictive tool used to gauge potential spot movements two to three months forward.
- In the final chapter of this report, Chapter 6 - Market Outlook and Price Forecast, the market is analyzed in terms of a one-year and intermediate-term perspectives, and forecasts are presented for the spot price and long-term base price through 2035. The near-term availability of supply by price, market trends, and bullish and bearish arguments for price movements are also presented in this chapter.
- The report contains two appendices. The first appendix, Appendix A - Forecasting Methodology, details the various methodologies used in this report to forecast price, supply, demand, and market price indicators. The second appendix, Appendix B - Statistical Review, contains tables and figures that provide additional and expanded data to those presented in the body of the report.
Who should read this report
- Fuel buyers
- Policy makers
- Producers
- Investors