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CESA

7th Asian Nuclear Energy Briefing 2023

Conversion Market Outlook
Conversion: The Weakest Link?

Critical Link from U to SWU

The UF6 conversion market has experienced dramatic events leading to huge price swings over the past decade. With only a few major operating conversion facilities in the world, there are unique factors inherent to the conversion space that shape the conversion supply picture. Issues at any plant can impact supply, and thus prices. Recently, prices for conversion services have skyrocketed to historic highs due to production cutbacks, unexpected outages, and trade restrictions, among other factors.

The conversion market is clearly in a transition phase, with important implications for buyers and sellers alike. Conversion supply has become extremely tight and is expected to remain vulnerable to supply shocks over the next decade as production capacity has been reduced while demand is growing due to shifts in enricher tails assays. Multiple issues have affected the supply-side of the equation in recent years, including Honeywell's decision in 2017 to shutter its Metropolis conversion plant until 2023, Orano's delayed transition to its new COMURHEX II facilities, as well as impacts from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As a result, prices for conversion services have risen to historical highs as of 2022.

Conversion Market Analysis

UxC's Conversion Market Outlook (CMO) report addresses all the latest developments and provides a thorough supply-demand analysis plus spot and long-term price forecasts for conversion services through 2040. In addition to market analysis and contracting reviews, the annual report also includes a topical essay. Also included with the CMO report package are monthly updates to UxC's proprietary leading conversion spot price indicator system for one year, and a mid-year detailed CMO market update report.

Please see our product flier in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.
A table of contents from a previous report has been provided for your review.

Pricing

The Conversion Market Outlook may be purchased for US$6,000.00. An order page is available for ordering this report.

Standard Features

  • The report starts with a executive summary, providing a concise overview of the current market situation. An advance copy of the executive summary is now emailed to subscribers.
  • Chapter 1 contains a topical essay that addresses key events and their potential impact on the market. Please note that the end-year update report does not contain an essay.
  • Chapter 2 - Recent Contracting Review reviews recent contracting activity in both the spot and long-term conversion markets and describes some of the key developments and trends which are apparent from recent transaction activity.
  • Chapter 3 - Requirements and Demand Outlook updates the world reactor demand and changes to conversion requirements on a regional basis. The spot and long-term demand picture for the near term is also analyzed.
  • Chapter 4 - Primary and Secondary Supply Outlook examines spot and long-term supply sources, including an overview of each of the primary conversion suppliers and the most significant secondary or inventory supplies of conversion and UF6.
  • Chapter 5 - Conversion Spot Market Indicators & Technical Analysis presents a detailed update of leading price indicators designed by UxC to quantify market factors that are affecting price outlook in the near-term, along with a technical analysis of near-term price movements. Included with a subscription to the annual report are monthly updates of UxC's near-term price indicators, a predictive tool used to gauge potential spot movements two to three months forward.
  • Chapter 6 - Market Outlook and Price Forecast discusses near-term market fundamentals, provides bullish and bearish arguments as to where market prices could move over this period, and looks are future regional market developments. This section also presents three long-term scenarios of spot price forecasts, with separate forecasts for both North American and European delivery.
  • The report also contains Appendix A - Statistical Review, which has expanded tables and figures in addition to those presented throughout the report. It is designed to be used as a standard reference source providing both historical and current market data.

You should definitely read this report if...

  • You are a supplier of conversion services,
  • You are considering entering the conversion market, or
  • You are developing a strategy to cover needs over the next few years.
For additional information, please contact:
Eric Webb  +1 (770) 642-7745