Critical Link from U to SWU
The UF6 conversion market has experienced dramatic events that have caused huge price swings over the past decade. With only a handful of major operating facilities in the world, there are unique factors that shape the supply picture. Disturbances at any single plant can have a significant impact on supply, and thus prices. Most recently, prices for conversion services have skyrocketed by over 300% in the span of less than two years due to supply cutbacks at key conversion facilities and other factors.
The conversion market is expected to remain vulnerable to supply shocks over the next decade as production capacity has been reduced in the face of lower post-Fukushima demand and higher market price volatility. Honeywell's decision in late 2017 to shutter its Metropolis conversion plant until market conditions improve has added significant uncertainty to the future supply outlook. New investment in conversion capacity may also be necessary given the state of aging facilities and the closures of the Springfields plant in the UK and the Angarsk plant in Russia in 2014. Thus, the conversion market is clearly in a transition phase, with important implications for buyers and sellers alike.
Conversion Market Analysis
UxC's Conversion Market Outlook (CMO) report addresses all the latest developments and provides a thorough supply-demand analysis plus spot and long-term price forecasts for conversion services through 2035. In addition to market analysis and contracting reviews, the annual report also includes a topical essay. Also included with the CMO report package are monthly updates via email to UxC's proprietary leading conversion spot price indicator system for one year, and a mid-year detailed market update report.
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The Conversion Market Outlook may be purchased for US$5,500.00. An order page is available for ordering this report.
- The report starts with a executive summary, providing a concise overview of the current market situation. An advance copy of the executive summary is now e-mailed to subscribers.
- Chapter 1 contains a topical essay that addresses key events and their potential impact on the market. Please note that the end-year update report does not contain an essay.
- Chapter 2 - Recent Contracting Review reviews recent contracting activity in both the spot and long-term conversion markets and describes some of the key developments and trends which are apparent from recent transaction activity.
- Chapter 3 - Requirements and Demand Outlook updates the world reactor demand and changes to conversion requirements on a regional basis. The spot and long-term demand picture for the near term is also analyzed.
- Chapter 4 - Primary and Secondary Supply Outlook examines spot and long-term supply sources, including an overview of each of the primary conversion suppliers and the most significant secondary or inventory supplies of conversion and UF6.
- Chapter 5 - Conversion Spot Market Indicators & Technical Analysis presents a detailed update of leading price indicators designed by UxC to quantify market factors that are affecting price outlook in the near-term, along with a technical analysis of near-term price movements. Included with a subscription to the annual report are monthly updates of UxC's near-term price indicators, a predictive tool used to gauge potential spot movements two to three months forward.
- Chapter 6 - Market Outlook and Price Forecast discusses near-term market fundamentals, provides bullish and bearish arguments as to where market prices could move over this period, and looks are future regional market developments. This section also presents three long-term scenarios of spot price forecasts, with separate forecasts for both North American and European delivery.
- The report also contains Appendix A - Statistical Review, which has expanded tables and figures in addition to those presented throughout the report. It is designed to be used as a standard reference source providing both historical and current market data.
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