Sep 1, 2014
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What's inside the
August 25, 2014
Cover: August Market Outlook
Japan to decide on nuclear energy mix in late 2015, considering nuclear subsidies
New reactor connected to grid in China
Chinese companies consider new reactor at Bradwell in UK
Peach Bottom nuclear plant gets approval for uprate
Blue Castle signs MOU with Westinghouse for potential AP1000 reactor in Utah
Draft energy policy in Poland calls for nuclear to become key power source
Iran starts UO2 production line at Isfahan conversion plant
Additional funding provided for ORNL/USEC’s ACTDO program
ARMZ’s Khiagda plans to mine new deposits in 2016
CGN plans acid plant at Husab
Energy Fuels announces closing of sale of non-core assets
Powertech Uranium must release survey data
BHP Billiton to spin off assets
Forum acquires Karpinka property
Anatolia announces drill results from Temrezli
The Market
UxC: Consulting, Data Services, and Publications
The industry's leading source of
Consulting, Data Services
& Publications on the
Global Nuclear Fuel
Cycle Markets
Nuclear Industry Value Chain
Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Market Outlook

Recent Special Reports

2013 Nuclear Fuel Market Review - Mar 2014

Analysis of USEC Notice for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy - Jan 2014

End of an Era: The HEU Agreement and Beyond - Dec 2013

Nuclear Industry Value Chain 2013 - Nov 2013

Enrichment Supplier Assessments - Oct 2013

Market Outlook Report Essays

UMO End of the HEU Agreement & New Market Fundamentals - Q2 2014

CMO Long-Term Market Fundamentals - Dec 2013

EMO An Estimate of Excess EUP/SWU Inventories - Q2 2014

FMO The Death of Competition? - Jul 2014

NPO 2014 Q2 Nuclear Power Market Trends and Analysis - Q2 2014

UxC Policy Watch

Aug 7, 2014 Russia Sanctions Update - August 2014

Jul 31, 2014 Federal Court Denies ConverDyn’s Request for Preliminary Injunction

Jul 25, 2014 Russia Sanctions Update - July 2014

Jul 9, 2014 ConverDyn Files Motion for a Preliminary Injunction Against DOE Uranium Transfers

Jun 27, 2014 Policy Watch Update - Q2 2014

UxC Meeting Summaries

Feb 26, 2014 Powering Asia with the Atom: ANBP-2014

Feb 5, 2014 10th Annual Platts Conference: Preserving Nuclear’s Future

Nov 10, 2013 2013 ANS Winter Meeting: Americans, JUST DO IT!

Oct 22, 2013 Nuclear Construction Summit: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Oct 6, 2013 2013 NEI-IUFS: Slugging Along in San Antonio

UxC's Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) highlights recent developments and their impact on the market.

Each quarterly report, at over 130 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This quarter’s essay, “End of the HEU Agreement & New Market Fundamentals” estimates how much uranium is derived on an annual basis via underfeeding and tails re-enrichment from Russia’s excess SWU capacity following the end of the HEU Agreement and in the post-Fukushima market. Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

Uranium Suppliers Annual

Sometimes referred to as "The Uranium Bible", the Uranium Suppliers Annual contains comprehensive data and information on all of the world's uranium suppliers, including detailed sections on planned producers and junior/exploration companies.

Whether you are a utility, producer, trader, or investor, the Uranium Suppliers Annual provides the basis for understanding potential future developments surrounding the availability of supply, particularly since uranium production has continued to be sub-par against a backdrop of growing demand. In light of the increasing volatile nature of the uranium market, primary and potential suppliers are continuously re-evaluating their properties and future production plans, as well as expanding exploration programs where economically feasible.

Uranium Production Cost Study

The Uranium Production Cost Study complements UxC’s Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) and Uranium Supplier’s Annual (USA) in identifying where expanded and new uranium supply will come from among 116 worldwide projects to meet future nuclear fuel demand through 2030.

UxC's Conversion Market Outlook (CMO) details an often overlooked market.

Each bi-annual report, at over 120 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This year's essay entitled “Long-Term Market Fundamentals,” which reviews the key issues impacting the market, the ways that both buyers and sellers of conversion are approaching the market, and the long-term outlook for supply and demand. We conclude with an examination of the long-term future for prices, with a new analysis of the likely future course for long-term contract prices of conversion. Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC's Enrichment Market Outlook (EMO) Covers a Dynamic and Key Segment of the Overall Nuclear Fuel Market.

Enrichment developments not only are important for understanding the enrichment market, but are also crucial for understanding the future progression of the uranium market. Since uranium and enrichment are substitutes, increases in enrichment supply can have a major impact on the future demand for uranium. Each quarterly report, at over 110 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This issue’s essay, “An Estimate of Excess EUP/SWU Inventories,” addresses the question of excess EUP/SWU inventories around the world and how they might enter the market in the future. These estimates are made largely on the basis of publically available information on nuclear fuel inventories from various sources, along with our estimates of the portion of these inventories that are EUP and, of that, the amount that may be considered excess. Premature reactor shutdowns and delays in restarts have made the buildup of excess inventories a growing consideration in the market, and the essay represents our attempt to quantify these supplies. Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC's Enrichment Suppliers Assessments (ESA)

USEC recently declared its intention to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and re-emerge as a leaner, new enrichment company. What will happen to the American Centrifuge Project (ACP)? Where will USEC find the funding for the ACP? How will the new USEC survive until an ACP plant can be built? These are just a few of the multitude of questions raised by the USEC bankruptcy announcement. UxC’s USEC Watch subscriber service follows all of USEC’s activities in depth and analyzes their consequences for the company and also for their impact on the enrichment market as a whole. Learn more about the ESA.

USEC Watch: Analysis of USEC Notice for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

This report is focused on in-depth descriptions and analyses of the major uranium enrichment suppliers, their sources of Separative Work Units (SWUs) supply , and the enrichment technologies they employ. Details on each enricher include, among other items: Company history, Ownership & Organizational structure, Financial status & performance, Importance of enrichment to its overall business, Current and future sources of enrichment supplies, Market strategy, Client base and contract portfolio, and Direct impact of any trade restrictions on its enrichment business. Learn more about USEC Watch.

End of an Era: The HEU Agreement and Beyond

“End of an Era: The HEU Agreement and Beyond,” examines the HEU deal from an historical standpoint, and addresses the impact of the deal’s end on the parties to the deal and nuclear fuel market as a whole. In this regard, the essay takes a close look at the fate the Russian enrichment plants, Russia’s enrichment industry after the HEU Agreement, and the fate of USEC. Looking forward, we turn to examining the likelihood of follow-on to the HEU Agreement as well as the prospects for the SWU and uranium markets in the post-HEU era. Get more information.

UxC and its consultant, Joel Gingold, with over forty years experience in the fuel fabrication industry, have prepared a comprehensive and up-to-date Fabrication Market Outlook (FMO) report addressing the commercial, economic, institutional, and technical aspects of this sector. Fabrication differs greatly from other steps in the fuel cycle. Its high technical content, need for regulatory approval, and the restriction of fuel assemblies to specific reactors require a unique approach to its analysis. To those with little knowledge of fuel fabrication and its markets, this report can serve as a primer providing a solid background and understanding of how its markets function. To those knowledgeable in the fundamentals, it offers analyses of a variety of its aspects based on several decades of participation. To those who are actively involved in the industry, it supplies additional insights to assist in the improvement of existing nuclear fuel programs and in the development of new ones.

UxC has prepared a new special report to provide an overview of the zirconium alloy market for the nuclear industry entitled Nuclear Grade Zirconium Alloy Market Outlook. Nuclear-grade zirconium alloys and products are used in the fabrication of fuel assemblies, which are used in the vast majority of nuclear reactor designs either currently operating, under construction, or planned around the world. As the nuclear renaissance takes hold in countries all over the globe, many questions about the international nuclear supply chain have arisen. The supply of nuclear-grade zirconium – from zircon mineral sand through the cladding and components used in finished fuel assemblies – has also not escaped this scrutiny. Therefore, the primary objective of this report is to factually and analytically approach the current and expected future direction of the nuclear-grade zirconium market to help formulate clear conclusions about how producers of fuel assemblies for nuclear reactors will obtain the necessary zirconium for their finished products.

This year’s in-depth topical essay entitled "The Death of Competition?" pulls together the competition-related portions of previous essays, adds additional analyses and insights and presents a comprehensive assessment of the present declining trends in competition, how the fabrication markets may develop in future years and what (if anything) can be done to enhance competition in various global markets.

UxC's Nuclear Power Outlook (NPO)

Each quarterly report, at over 200 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This quarter’s Chapter 1 – Nuclear Power Market Trends and Analysis analyzes the biggest challenges to nuclear power today along with ways that these can be overcome. Our “In the Spotlight” section reviews the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook. Lastly, we identify who is up and who is down within the global nuclear industry since the last quarter.

Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC Analyzes Reactor Technology

In March 2013, UxC issued a new special report on the SMR Market Outlook (SMO). This 450 page report provides comprehensive commercial and technical analysis of the overall SMR market and detailed reviews of the leading SMR designs in the world. The SMO report is the result of UxC’s continuing efforts to provide its global clients with insightful products and services in the SMR sector. It includes a global SMR market review along with a global outlook for SMR market developments as well as deployment forecasts to 2040.

In December 2010, UxC issued a groundbreaking special report on Small Modular Reactor Assessments (SMRA). This report’s objective is to provide technical, economic, and other commercial assessments of each of the SMR designs being developed in the world today. In addition, the report provides an in-depth discussion of the broader issues impacting SMRs, such as the keys to successful deployment for SMRs, comparisons with larger reactor technologies, specific applications for SMRs, and the broader issues facing potential customers for SMRs.

In August 2008, UxC completed a special report on Nuclear Reactor Technology Assessments. This in-depth study provides nuclear reactor technology assessments and overall evaluations of the major reactor designs currently available in the world. The decision of which reactor design to pursue is an extremely important one and must be based on many factors, such as the robustness of the technology, the constructability of the plant, the plant economics - both initial and operating, the type of fuel used, the ability to license and regulate, among a variety of other considerations.

UxC's SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL - UxC is not only expanding its geopolitical coverage of the market, but is also now covering more of the fuel cycle. In June 2007, UxC began to publish SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL, two leading newsletters dealing with the backend of the fuel cycle.

Both publications cover major fuel cycle and backend-related conferences in detail. In addition, UxC can advise clients in issues related to the back end of the fuel cycle, including profiles of utility spent fuel storage facilities and plans, country profiles, vendor profiles, etc.


Headline News
Georgia Power: Plant Vogtle still on time, within budget (Aug 28, 2014) Atlanta Business Chronicle : Georgia Power issues construction update to Public Service Commission.
Gov. Beshear supports lifting ban on nuclear power plants in KY (Aug 28, 2014) WDRB : Kentucky Governor says he supports lifting ban on nuclear power plants.
UAE's first nuclear reactor over halfway complete (Aug 28, 2014) ConstructionWeekOnline.com : Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation updates progress at Barakah nuclear project; Unit 1 expected to come online in 2017.
Modi eyes breakthrough nuclear pact on Japan trip (Aug 28, 2014) Reuters : Article discusses Prime Minister of India's upcoming visit to Japan.
Strike Notice Prompts Shutdown of McArthur River and Key Lake Operations (Aug 27, 2014) Cameco : Cameco to cease operations at McArthur River mine and Key Lake mill due to strike notice from United Steelworkers union.
Belgium Nuclear Halts Boost Power Premium on Supply Risk (Aug 27, 2014) Bloomberg : Article discusses electricity price increase due to lack of nuclear power supply in Belgium.
NRC Approves Final Rule on Spent Fuel Storage and Ends Suspension of Final Licensing Actions for Nuclear Plants and Renewals Acrobat (Aug 26, 2014) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission : The U.S. NRC approves final rule on the environmental effects of long-term spent fuel storage and lifts its moratorium on final licensing actions.
Nuclear Industry Commends NRC for Finalizing Used Fuel Storage Rule (Aug 26, 2014) Nuclear Energy Institute : NEI highlights NRC's move to finalize spent fuel storage rule.
NRC could lift moratorium on nuclear licenses soon, despite protest (Aug 21, 2014) SNL : Article highlights NRC "affirmation session" tomorrow regarding long term storage of spent fuel rule change.
NRC Approves Power Uprate For Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Acrobat (Aug 25, 2014) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission : NRC approves 12.4 percent uprate for Peach Bottom Units 2 and 3.

Today's Lighter Side

Do Not Touch!

Our supply clerk at the factory was in a dither. A box had been left on the loading dock with this warning printed on it: “Danger! Do Not Touch!”

Management was called, and we were told to stay clear of the box until it could be analyzed. When the foreman arrived, he donned safety goggles and gloves, and then he carefully opened the box.

Inside were 25 signs that read: Danger! Do Not Touch!

UxW19-43 Oct 24, 2005


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SpentFUEL

WNA Symposium 2014
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