What's inside the Ux Weekly

November 17, 2014

IEA World Energy Outlook 2014: 380 GWe of New Nuclear Capacity by 2040
Metropolis conversion plant resumes operation
Ohma 1 in Japan will not be completed until 2020
Full commercial operation for India’s Kudankulam 1 delayed until 2015
TVO to continue to procure fuel from AREVA and Westinghouse
RWE and E.ON award nuclear fuel contracts to Westinghouse
Callaway nuclear plant moves a step closer to license renewal
Centrus reports third quarter 2014 results
Uranium One reports Q3 2014 production of 1.6 million pounds U3O8
Energy Fuels reports Q3 results
Upcoming Greenland election will decide uranium’s fate
ARMZ’s PIMCU to resume uranium mining at two mines
Alliance institutes court proceedings for Four Mile production sales and marketing agency
Erratum
The Market
The industry's leading source of Publications, Data Services, and Consulting, on the Global Nuclear Fuel Cycle Markets
EMO

NPA 2015

Nuclear Energy Institute - International Uranium Fuel Seminar

UxC's Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) highlights recent developments and their impact on the market.

Each quarterly report, at over 130 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This quarter’s essay, “Ten Years Later: A Dramatically Changed Market” looks at how the uranium market has changes in terms of supply, demand, and price information/market operation over the past ten years, along with the implications of this going forward.

Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

Uranium Suppliers Annual

Sometimes referred to as "The Uranium Bible", the Uranium Suppliers Annual contains comprehensive data and information on all of the world's uranium suppliers, including detailed sections on planned producers and junior/exploration companies.

Whether you are a utility, producer, trader, or investor, the Uranium Suppliers Annual provides the basis for understanding potential future developments surrounding the availability of supply, particularly since uranium production has continued to be sub-par against a backdrop of growing demand. In light of the increasing volatile nature of the uranium market, primary and potential suppliers are continuously re-evaluating their properties and future production plans, as well as expanding exploration programs where economically feasible.

Uranium Production Cost Study

The Uranium Production Cost Study complements UxC’s Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) and Uranium Supplier’s Annual (USA) in identifying where expanded and new uranium supply will come from among 116 worldwide projects to meet future nuclear fuel demand through 2030.

UxC's Conversion Market Outlook (CMO) details an often overlooked market.

Each bi-annual report, at over 120 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This year's essay entitled “Long-Term Market Fundamentals,” which reviews the key issues impacting the market, the ways that both buyers and sellers of conversion are approaching the market, and the long-term outlook for supply and demand. We conclude with an examination of the long-term future for prices, with a new analysis of the likely future course for long-term contract prices of conversion.

Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC's Enrichment Market Outlook (EMO) Covers a Dynamic and Key Segment of the Overall Nuclear Fuel Market.

Enrichment developments not only are important for understanding the enrichment market, but are also crucial for understanding the future progression of the uranium market. Since uranium and enrichment are substitutes, increases in enrichment supply can have a major impact on the future demand for uranium. Each quarterly report, at over 110 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This issue’s essay, “China’s Evolving Role in the Enrichment Market,” examines the growing position of China in the global enrichment market as both an exporter as well as importer of SWU. China has been participating in the international enrichment market for over two decades, and, while its role in the market has shifted over the years, the general trajectory has been one of increasing influence on the overall market. This essay reviews China’s current demand and supply for SWU, its rationales for exports, and several other facets of its enrichment industry. By analyzing three supply and price forecast scenarios, it provides a framework to assess China’s current and future actions as they relate to the enrichment market.

Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC's Enrichment Suppliers Assessments (ESA)

USEC recently declared its intention to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and re-emerge as a leaner, new enrichment company. What will happen to the American Centrifuge Project (ACP)? Where will USEC find the funding for the ACP? How will the new USEC survive until an ACP plant can be built? These are just a few of the multitude of questions raised by the USEC bankruptcy announcement. UxC’s USEC Watch subscriber service follows all of USEC’s activities in depth and analyzes their consequences for the company and also for their impact on the enrichment market as a whole. Learn more about the ESA.

USEC Watch: Analysis of USEC Notice for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

This report is focused on in-depth descriptions and analyses of the major uranium enrichment suppliers, their sources of Separative Work Units (SWUs) supply , and the enrichment technologies they employ. Details on each enricher include, among other items: Company history, Ownership & Organizational structure, Financial status & performance, Importance of enrichment to its overall business, Current and future sources of enrichment supplies, Market strategy, Client base and contract portfolio, and Direct impact of any trade restrictions on its enrichment business. Learn more about USEC Watch.

End of an Era: The HEU Agreement and Beyond

“End of an Era: The HEU Agreement and Beyond,” examines the HEU deal from an historical standpoint, and addresses the impact of the deal’s end on the parties to the deal and nuclear fuel market as a whole. In this regard, the essay takes a close look at the fate the Russian enrichment plants, Russia’s enrichment industry after the HEU Agreement, and the fate of USEC. Looking forward, we turn to examining the likelihood of follow-on to the HEU Agreement as well as the prospects for the SWU and uranium markets in the post-HEU era. Get more information.

UxC's Fabrication Market Outlook (FMO)

UxC and its consultant, Joel Gingold, with over forty years experience in the fuel fabrication industry, have prepared a comprehensive and up-to-date Fabrication Market Outlook (FMO) report addressing the commercial, economic, institutional, and technical aspects of this sector. Fabrication differs greatly from other steps in the fuel cycle. Its high technical content, need for regulatory approval, and the restriction of fuel assemblies to specific reactors require a unique approach to its analysis. To those with little knowledge of fuel fabrication and its markets, this report can serve as a primer providing a solid background and understanding of how its markets function. To those knowledgeable in the fundamentals, it offers analyses of a variety of its aspects based on several decades of participation. To those who are actively involved in the industry, it supplies additional insights to assist in the improvement of existing nuclear fuel programs and in the development of new ones.

This year’s in-depth topical essay entitled "The Death of Competition?" pulls together the competition-related portions of previous essays, adds additional analyses and insights and presents a comprehensive assessment of the present declining trends in competition, how the fabrication markets may develop in future years and what (if anything) can be done to enhance competition in various global markets.

UxC's Nuclear Grade Zirconium Alloy Market Outlook

UxC has prepared a new special report to provide an overview of the zirconium alloy market for the nuclear industry entitled Nuclear Grade Zirconium Alloy Market Outlook. Nuclear-grade zirconium alloys and products are used in the fabrication of fuel assemblies, which are used in the vast majority of nuclear reactor designs either currently operating, under construction, or planned around the world. As the nuclear renaissance takes hold in countries all over the globe, many questions about the international nuclear supply chain have arisen. The supply of nuclear-grade zirconium – from zircon mineral sand through the cladding and components used in finished fuel assemblies – has also not escaped this scrutiny. Therefore, the primary objective of this report is to factually and analytically approach the current and expected future direction of the nuclear-grade zirconium market to help formulate clear conclusions about how producers of fuel assemblies for nuclear reactors will obtain the necessary zirconium for their finished products.

UxC's Nuclear Power Outlook (NPO)

Each quarterly report, at over 200 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This quarter’s Chapter 1 – Nuclear Power Market Trends and Analysis provides a sneak peek at some of UxC’s latest in-depth analysis of the nuclear reactor technology marketplace in our new 2014 Reactor Technology Outlook (RTO) special report. Our “In the Spotlight” section looks at whether Belgium’s nuclear phase-out will happen sooner than previously expected. Lastly, we identify who is up and who is down within the global nuclear industry over the past quarter.

Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC Analyzes Reactor Technology

In March 2013, UxC issued a new special report on the SMR Market Outlook (SMO). This 450 page report provides comprehensive commercial and technical analysis of the overall SMR market and detailed reviews of the leading SMR designs in the world. The SMO report is the result of UxC’s continuing efforts to provide its global clients with insightful products and services in the SMR sector. It includes a global SMR market review along with a global outlook for SMR market developments as well as deployment forecasts to 2040.

In December 2010, UxC issued a groundbreaking special report on Small Modular Reactor Assessments (SMRA). This report’s objective is to provide technical, economic, and other commercial assessments of each of the SMR designs being developed in the world today. In addition, the report provides an in-depth discussion of the broader issues impacting SMRs, such as the keys to successful deployment for SMRs, comparisons with larger reactor technologies, specific applications for SMRs, and the broader issues facing potential customers for SMRs.

In August 2008, UxC completed a special report on Nuclear Reactor Technology Assessments. This in-depth study provides nuclear reactor technology assessments and overall evaluations of the major reactor designs currently available in the world. The decision of which reactor design to pursue is an extremely important one and must be based on many factors, such as the robustness of the technology, the constructability of the plant, the plant economics - both initial and operating, the type of fuel used, the ability to license and regulate, among a variety of other considerations.

UxC's SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL

UxC is not only expanding its geopolitical coverage of the market, but is also now covering more of the fuel cycle. In June 2007, UxC began to publish SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL, two leading newsletters dealing with the backend of the fuel cycle.

Both publications cover major fuel cycle and backend-related conferences in detail. In addition, UxC can advise clients in issues related to the back end of the fuel cycle, including profiles of utility spent fuel storage facilities and plans, country profiles, vendor profiles, etc.


Latest Headlines

French econ minister says too soon to decide Areva options
Reuters (Nov 19, 2014)
French Economy Minister discusses support for AREVA.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/11/19/areva-warning-minister-idINL6N0T94TO20141119
EDF must start French nuclear closure in 2015 despite delay on replacement
Reuters (Nov 19, 2014)
French official in charge of closing Fessenheim plant says EDF must close the plant despite a delay at Flamanville.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/11/19/france-nuclear-idINL6N0T93HX20141119
French Nuclear Giant Areva Says Future Is Uncertain, Prompting a Sell-Off
New York Times (Nov 19, 2014)
AREVA cautions that the future outlook for the company is uncertain.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/20/business/international/french-nuclear-giant-areva-says-future-is-uncertain-prompting-a-sell-off.html?_r=0
Areva drops 2015-16 targets as nuclear market worsens
Reuters (Nov 18, 2014)
AREVA suspends its 2015 and 2016 financial targets due to current market conditions.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/18/areva-warning-confirmation-idUSL6N0T84OH20141118
Australian, Indian leaders target free trade pact, economic boost
Reuters (Nov 18, 2014)
Australian and Indian leaders agree to pursue a free trade pact.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/australia-india-trade-idINKCN0J12DX20141117
Australian uranium shipments planned for 2015 as India ramps up nuclear power
Australian Associated Press (Nov 18, 2014)
Australia expects to begin shipping uranium to India in 2015.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/australian-uranium-shipments-planned-for-2015-as-india-ramps-up-nuclear-power-20141118-11p237.html
Kudankulam nuclear plant to start commercial ops by Jan 22
Press Trust of India (Nov 16, 2014)
Kudankulam plant is expected to begin commercial operations in late January 2015.
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/article6604909.ece
'Clearly lacks the experience': Vitter calls for full hearing on Obama NRC nominee
Washington Examiner (Nov 15, 2014)
Senator David Vitter voices his opposition to NRC commissioners Baran and Burns.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/clearly-lacks-the-experience-vitter-calls-for-full-hearing-on-obama-nrc-nominee/article/2556230
Shimane Prefecture to tax idled nuclear reactors
Japan Times (Nov 14, 2014)
Shimane Prefectural Government announces plans to tax idled nuclear reactors based on their output capacities.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/11/14/national/shimane-prefecture-to-tax-idled-nuclear-reactors/
Obama nominates NRC's Baran to fill out Macfarlane's term
Energy Guardian (Subscription Required) (Nov 14, 2014)
White House will nominate NRC Commissioner Baran to fill out Macfarlane’s remaining term ending in June 2018.
http://www.energyguardian.net/obama-nominates-nrcs-baran-fill-out-macfarlanes-term

Today's Lighter Side

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