What's inside the Ux Weekly

April 20, 2015

2014 U3O8 Production Review
Judge in Japan rules against restart of Takahama 3 and 4
Court could decide Wednesday whether to block restart of Sendai 1 and 2
EIA reference case sees total U.S. nuclear generation increasing 6% by 2040
China’s State council approves construction of indigenous reactors
ConverDyn lawsuit hearing scheduled
Turkey marks start of work on first nuclear power plant
EDF says construction continuing for Unit 3 at Flamanville
Cameco signs uranium supply agreement with India
Denison announces successful completion of winter 2015 drill season
Forte Energy files new license application over Kuriskova
Fission announces drill results from R780E zone at PLS project
Vimy Resources upgrades Mulga Rock resource
The Market
The industry's leading source of Publications, Data Services, and Consulting, on the Global Nuclear Fuel Cycle Markets
PW

2nd MENA Nuclear Energy Summit 2015

11th Annual China Nuclear Energy Congress

UxC's Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) highlights recent developments and their impact on the market.

Each quarterly report, at over 130 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This quarter’s essay, “Uranium Production Cutbacks and Delays” highlights the production cuts/delays that have occurred over the last few years and analyzes whether the extent of these events have been enough to bring the market into greater equilibrium given the extent of the global uranium demand reduction since the Fukushima accident.

Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

Uranium Suppliers Annual

Sometimes referred to as "The Uranium Bible", the Uranium Suppliers Annual contains comprehensive data and information on all of the world's uranium suppliers, including detailed sections on planned producers and junior/exploration companies.

Whether you are a utility, producer, trader, or investor, the Uranium Suppliers Annual provides the basis for understanding potential future developments surrounding the availability of supply, particularly since uranium production has continued to be sub-par against a backdrop of growing demand. In light of the increasing volatile nature of the uranium market, primary and potential suppliers are continuously re-evaluating their properties and future production plans, as well as expanding exploration programs where economically feasible.

Uranium Production Cost Study

The Uranium Production Cost Study complements UxC’s Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) and Uranium Supplier’s Annual (USA) in identifying where expanded and new uranium supply will come from among 116 worldwide projects to meet future nuclear fuel demand through 2030.

UxC's Conversion Market Outlook (CMO) details an often overlooked market.

Each bi-annual report, at over 120 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

Chapter 1 presents our essay entitled “Russia’s Conversion Industry in Transition,” which discusses the historical and current state of Russia’s conversion industry and how recent decisions and market conditions may shape the country’s approach to uranium conversion in the future.

Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC's Enrichment Market Outlook (EMO) Covers a Dynamic and Key Segment of the Overall Nuclear Fuel Market.

Enrichment developments not only are important for understanding the enrichment market, but are also crucial for understanding the future progression of the uranium market. Since uranium and enrichment are substitutes, increases in enrichment supply can have a major impact on the future demand for uranium. Each quarterly report, at over 110 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This issue’s essay, “The Estimated Impact of Recycling on the SWU Market,” examines the extent to which recycle of mixed-oxide (MOX) and enriched reprocessed uranium (ERU) displaces the need for SWU supply. In doing this, the technical and historical context of reprocessing and recycle is presented, and nonproliferation and related issues are discussed. The essay concludes with a projection of the amount of SWU that will be displaced over the 2014-2030 period, identifying the factors contributing to the projected decline in the use of recycle over time.

Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC's Enrichment Suppliers Assessments (ESA)

USEC recently declared its intention to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and re-emerge as a leaner, new enrichment company. What will happen to the American Centrifuge Project (ACP)? Where will USEC find the funding for the ACP? How will the new USEC survive until an ACP plant can be built? These are just a few of the multitude of questions raised by the USEC bankruptcy announcement. UxC’s USEC Watch subscriber service follows all of USEC’s activities in depth and analyzes their consequences for the company and also for their impact on the enrichment market as a whole. Learn more about the ESA.

USEC Watch: Analysis of USEC Notice for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

This report is focused on in-depth descriptions and analyses of the major uranium enrichment suppliers, their sources of Separative Work Units (SWUs) supply , and the enrichment technologies they employ. Details on each enricher include, among other items: Company history, Ownership & Organizational structure, Financial status & performance, Importance of enrichment to its overall business, Current and future sources of enrichment supplies, Market strategy, Client base and contract portfolio, and Direct impact of any trade restrictions on its enrichment business. Learn more about USEC Watch.

End of an Era: The HEU Agreement and Beyond

“End of an Era: The HEU Agreement and Beyond,” examines the HEU deal from an historical standpoint, and addresses the impact of the deal’s end on the parties to the deal and nuclear fuel market as a whole. In this regard, the essay takes a close look at the fate the Russian enrichment plants, Russia’s enrichment industry after the HEU Agreement, and the fate of USEC. Looking forward, we turn to examining the likelihood of follow-on to the HEU Agreement as well as the prospects for the SWU and uranium markets in the post-HEU era. Get more information.

UxC's Fabrication Market Outlook (FMO)

UxC and its consultant, Joel Gingold, with over forty years experience in the fuel fabrication industry, have prepared a comprehensive and up-to-date Fabrication Market Outlook (FMO) report addressing the commercial, economic, institutional, and technical aspects of this sector. Fabrication differs greatly from other steps in the fuel cycle. Its high technical content, need for regulatory approval, and the restriction of fuel assemblies to specific reactors require a unique approach to its analysis. To those with little knowledge of fuel fabrication and its markets, this report can serve as a primer providing a solid background and understanding of how its markets function. To those knowledgeable in the fundamentals, it offers analyses of a variety of its aspects based on several decades of participation. To those who are actively involved in the industry, it supplies additional insights to assist in the improvement of existing nuclear fuel programs and in the development of new ones.

This year’s in-depth topical essay entitled "The Death of Competition?" pulls together the competition-related portions of previous essays, adds additional analyses and insights and presents a comprehensive assessment of the present declining trends in competition, how the fabrication markets may develop in future years and what (if anything) can be done to enhance competition in various global markets.

UxC's Nuclear Grade Zirconium Alloy Market Outlook

UxC has prepared a new special report to provide an overview of the zirconium alloy market for the nuclear industry entitled Nuclear Grade Zirconium Alloy Market Outlook. Nuclear-grade zirconium alloys and products are used in the fabrication of fuel assemblies, which are used in the vast majority of nuclear reactor designs either currently operating, under construction, or planned around the world. As the nuclear renaissance takes hold in countries all over the globe, many questions about the international nuclear supply chain have arisen. The supply of nuclear-grade zirconium – from zircon mineral sand through the cladding and components used in finished fuel assemblies – has also not escaped this scrutiny. Therefore, the primary objective of this report is to factually and analytically approach the current and expected future direction of the nuclear-grade zirconium market to help formulate clear conclusions about how producers of fuel assemblies for nuclear reactors will obtain the necessary zirconium for their finished products.

UxC's Nuclear Power Outlook (NPO)

Each quarterly report, at over 200 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This quarter’s Chapter 1 – Nuclear Power Market Trends and Analysis starts with a detailed review of recent trends in public opinion related to nuclear power in key countries around the world. Our “In the Spotlight” section this quarter takes an in-depth look at the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency’s (NEA) recent “Technology Roadmap” report, which provides a vision of the role nuclear energy could play in a low-carbon energy system. Lastly, we identify who is up and who is down within the global nuclear industry over the past quarter.

Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC Analyzes Reactor Technology

In March 2013, UxC issued a new special report on the SMR Market Outlook (SMO). This 450 page report provides comprehensive commercial and technical analysis of the overall SMR market and detailed reviews of the leading SMR designs in the world. The SMO report is the result of UxC’s continuing efforts to provide its global clients with insightful products and services in the SMR sector. It includes a global SMR market review along with a global outlook for SMR market developments as well as deployment forecasts to 2040.

In December 2010, UxC issued a groundbreaking special report on Small Modular Reactor Assessments (SMRA). This report’s objective is to provide technical, economic, and other commercial assessments of each of the SMR designs being developed in the world today. In addition, the report provides an in-depth discussion of the broader issues impacting SMRs, such as the keys to successful deployment for SMRs, comparisons with larger reactor technologies, specific applications for SMRs, and the broader issues facing potential customers for SMRs.

In August 2008, UxC completed a special report on Nuclear Reactor Technology Assessments. This in-depth study provides nuclear reactor technology assessments and overall evaluations of the major reactor designs currently available in the world. The decision of which reactor design to pursue is an extremely important one and must be based on many factors, such as the robustness of the technology, the constructability of the plant, the plant economics - both initial and operating, the type of fuel used, the ability to license and regulate, among a variety of other considerations.

UxC's SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL

UxC is not only expanding its geopolitical coverage of the market, but is also now covering more of the fuel cycle. In June 2007, UxC began to publish SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL, two leading newsletters dealing with the backend of the fuel cycle.

Both publications cover major fuel cycle and backend-related conferences in detail. In addition, UxC can advise clients in issues related to the back end of the fuel cycle, including profiles of utility spent fuel storage facilities and plans, country profiles, vendor profiles, etc.


Latest Headlines

Sendai-1 Expected to Return to Normal Operation in August
Japan Atomic Industrial Forum, Inc. (Apr 24, 2015)
Sendai 1 is expected to load fuel assemblies in June.
http://www.jaif.or.jp/en/sendai-1-expected-to-return-to-normal-operation-in-august/
Japan’s Record Run of Annual Trade Deficits Is Set to Continue
Bloomberg (Apr 22, 2015)
According to a survey, Japan's trade deficit will continue without nuclear energy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-22/japan-s-record-run-of-annual-trade-deficits-is-set-to-continue
Industry ministry eyes 20% to 22% of electricity from nuclear by 2030
Japan Times (Apr 23, 2015)
Japanese industry ministry may set the target for nuclear power generation between 20 percent and 22 percent.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/04/23/business/economy-business/industry-ministry-eyes-20-to-22-of-electricity-from-nuclear-by-2030/#.VTkhVZNcDWl
CFK confirms Russia will build nuclear plant
Buenos Aires Herald (Apr 23, 2015)
Argentine President says she will sign an agreement with Russia to build a sixth nuclear reactor.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/187466/cfk-confirms-russia-will-build-nuclear-plant
Japan court approves restart of reactors in boost for Abe's nuclear policy
Reuters (Apr 22, 2015)
Kagoshima District Court rejects the injunction preventing the restart of the Sendai reactors.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/22/us-japan-nuclear-courts-idUSKBN0NC1QD20150422
Japan nuclear ruling expected to cool Kyushu Electric's summer LNG demand
Platts (Apr 22, 2015)
The court ruling to allow the restart of Sendai reactors could depress Kyushu’s demand for LNG.
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/tokyo/japan-nuclear-ruling-expected-to-cool-kyushu-27334190
Exelon, ComEd face Illinois clean energy coalition in 3-bill showdown
Utility Dive (Apr 20, 2015)
Article details three proposals for energy legislation in Illinois Congress.
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/exelon-comed-face-illinois-clean-energy-coalition-in-3-bill-showdown/388399/
France's nuclear calamity has UK worried
The Local (Apr 21, 2015)
Article discusses problems that have hindered the Flamanville project.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20150421/flamanville-frances-own-nuclear-nightmare
Kepco appeals injunction blocking restart of Takahama reactors
Japan Times (Apr 18, 2015)
Kansai Electric Power submits "a motion of complaint to Fukui district court" regarding the injunction preventing the restart of Takahama 3 and 4.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/04/18/national/kepco-appeals-injunction-blocking-restart-of-takahama-reactors/
EU Approves Hungary’s Nuclear Fuel Supply from Russia
Wall Street Journal (Subscription Required) (Apr 20, 2015)
The European Union has approved Hungary to receive Russian nuclear fuel at the Paks nuclear plant.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-approves-hungarys-nuclear-fuel-supply-from-russia-1429545415

Today's Lighter Side

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