May 16, 2012
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What's inside the
May 14, 2012
Cover: EIA Uranium Report 2011
Energy Northwest to purchase re-enriched DOE tails
Cameco to acquire NUKEM
Town assembly votes to authorize restart of two reactors at Ohi plant in Japan
Schedule for completion of first AP1000 in the U.S. slips
Lithuania approves draft agreement for planned nuclear power plant
CEZ considering strategic partner for new reactors at Temelin
Milestone reported in construction of Chinese reactor
Brazil decides not to build new reactors until after 2020
USEC receives continued listing standards notice from NYSE
Uranium One announces 18% increase in Q1 production
Denison Mines reports Q1 loss
Workers strike at Kayelekera mine
EIA releases 2011 DUPR
Mega announces drilling from NW Athabasca property
DYL reports assays from MS7
The Market
UxC: Consulting, Data Services, and Publications
The industry's leading source of
Consulting, Data Services
& Publications on the
Global Nuclear Fuel
Cycle Markets
Nuclear Power in the Post-Fukushima Era
Small Modular Reactor Assessments

Recent Special Reports

China’s Nuclear Energy Market after Fukushima - Apr 2012

Overview of International Transportation Services for Uranium Products - Apr 2012

Japan’s Nuclear Energy Program after Fukushima-Update - Feb 2012

International PWR & PHWR Fuel Fabricator Benchmarking - Feb 2012

Uranium Suppliers Annual 2011 - Dec 2011

Market Outlook Report Essays

UMO Producer Consolidation – A New Round - Q1 2012

CMO The Conversion Market After Fukushima - Dec 2011

EMO The Enrichment Industry One Year after Fukushima - Q1 2012

FMO Fukushima, Fabrication and the Future - Jul 2011

NPO 2012 Q1 Nuclear Power Market Trends and Analysis - Q1 2012

UxC Policy Watch

May 10, 2012 U.S. Government Support for Small Modular Reactors

May 1, 2012 France’s 2012 Presidential Election

Apr 13, 2012 Nuclear Reactor Developments in the United Kingdom

Mar 28, 2012 Japan Nuclear Program after Fukushima – March 2012 Update

Mar 26, 2012 DOE Loan Guarantees – March 2012 Update

UxC Meeting Summaries

Apr 24, 2012 2nd Annual Small Modular Reactor Conference

Apr 4, 2012 KazAtomExpo 2012

Mar 26, 2012 Asia Mining Congress 2012

Mar 13, 2012 Regulatory Information Conference

Mar 12, 2012 Japan’s Economic Prospects One Year After 3/11

UxC Press Releases

Jun 7, 2011 UxC Announces Major Report Analyzing Fukushima Nuclear Accident

Jun 2, 2011 UxC and Nuclear.Ru to partner on the CIS market

May 9, 2011 UxC Says Global Nuclear Power Forecasts Drop Following Fukushima, but Significant Growth Still Expected

Jan 10, 2011 Ux Consulting Issues Groundbreaking Study on Small Modular Reactor Assessments

Dec 13, 2010 Ux Consulting Reports on China’s Role in Global Nuclear Fuel Market

UxC's Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) highlights recent developments and their impact on the market.

Each quarterly report, at over 130 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This quarter’s essay, “Producer Consolidation – A New Round,” provides a retrospective on uranium consolidation and looks into the various drivers impacting consolidation today. The essay details recent consolidation that was spurred by a pullback of uranium prices following the Fukushima accident last March and provides a glimpse into how consolidation may evolve in the future. Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

Uranium Suppliers Annual

Sometimes referred to as "The Uranium Bible", the Uranium Suppliers Annual contains comprehensive data and information on all of the world's uranium suppliers, including detailed sections on planned producers and junior/exploration companies.

Whether you are a utility, producer, trader, or investor, the Uranium Suppliers Annual provides the basis for understanding potential future developments surrounding the availability of supply, particularly since uranium production has continued to be sub-par against a backdrop of growing demand. In light of the increasing volatile nature of the uranium market, primary and potential suppliers are continuously re-evaluating their properties and future production plans, as well as expanding exploration programs where economically feasible.

Uranium Production Cost Study

The Uranium Production Cost Study complements UxC’s Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) and Uranium Supplier’s Annual (USA) in identifying where expanded and new uranium supply will come from among 116 worldwide projects to meet future nuclear fuel demand through 2030.

UxC's Conversion Market Outlook (CMO) details an often overlooked market.

Each bi-annual report, at over 120 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

THis year's essay entitled “The Conversion Market After Fukushima” analyzes the impact of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power accident in Japan and its aftermath on the broader global conversion market as well as on key issues, such as supply and demand fundamentals, market dynamics, and the future prospects for this critical industry. Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC's Enrichment Market Outlook (EMO) Covers a Dynamic and Key Segment of the Overall Nuclear Fuel Market.

Enrichment developments not only are important for understanding the enrichment market, but are also crucial for understanding the future progression of the uranium market. Since uranium and enrichment are substitutes, increases in enrichment supply can have a major impact on the future demand for uranium. Each quarterly report, at over 110 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This issue’s essay, “The Enrichment Industry One Year after Fukushima,” takes a look at the changes that enrichers have made and are making in response to the lower demand and lower prices following the Fukushima accident. This examination includes the four major enrichers – AREVA, TENEX, URENCO, and USEC – and the non-major enrichers and potential entrants which include China, JNFL, and GLE. This essay ranks the enrichers by the likelihood of them reaching their targeted capacity by 2020 given the changed circumstances of the market and compares the potential output of the big three enrichers – AREVA, TENEX, and URENCO – with our projected base case demand in 2020. Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

New report on USEC Enrichment Outlook

In enrichment, a key question on many utilities' minds is the prospects for success of USEC's American Centrifuge Program (ACP) and how this may shape the market and supply opportunities in the future. To this end, UxC has just released a report entitled Commercial Viability of USEC and ACP Update - 2009 The ACP report, authored by Steve Turner, a UxC consultant and expert on the economics of centrifuge technology, looks at the likely economics of the ACP based on an analysis of historical data, including reliability, and factoring in advances that have been made to improve the prospects for commercial success.

UxC and its consultant, Joel Gingold, with over forty years experience in the fuel fabrication industry, have prepared a comprehensive and up-to-date Fabrication Market Outlook (FMO) report addressing the commercial, economic, institutional, and technical aspects of this sector. Fabrication differs greatly from other steps in the fuel cycle. Its high technical content, need for regulatory approval, and the restriction of fuel assemblies to specific reactors require a unique approach to its analysis. To those with little knowledge of fuel fabrication and its markets, this report can serve as a primer providing a solid background and understanding of how its markets function. To those knowledgeable in the fundamentals, it offers analyses of a variety of its aspects based on several decades of participation. To those who are actively involved in the industry, it supplies additional insights to assist in the improvement of existing nuclear fuel programs and in the development of new ones.

UxC has prepared a new special report to provide an overview of the zirconium alloy market for the nuclear industry entitled Nuclear Grade Zirconium Alloy Market Outlook. Nuclear-grade zirconium alloys and products are used in the fabrication of fuel assemblies, which are used in the vast majority of nuclear reactor designs either currently operating, under construction, or planned around the world. As the nuclear renaissance takes hold in countries all over the globe, many questions about the international nuclear supply chain have arisen. The supply of nuclear-grade zirconium – from zircon mineral sand through the cladding and components used in finished fuel assemblies – has also not escaped this scrutiny. Therefore, the primary objective of this report is to factually and analytically approach the current and expected future direction of the nuclear-grade zirconium market to help formulate clear conclusions about how producers of fuel assemblies for nuclear reactors will obtain the necessary zirconium for their finished products.

This year’s in-depth topical essay entitled "Fukushima, Fabrication and the Future" provides an analytical discussion of the likely impacts of the Fukushima accident on all aspects of the fuel fabrication market as well as addressing other recent trends in the industry.

UxC's Nuclear Power Outlook (NPO)

Each quarterly report, at over 200 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This quarter’s Chapter 1 – Nuclear Power Market Trends and Analysis reviews the trends in the industry over the past quarter and looks closely at the state of the global nuclear power markets nearly one year after the Fukushima accident. The chapter also includes a special spotlight on the U.S. nuclear industry status and prospects. Lastly, we also identify who’s up and who’s down within the international nuclear industry over the quarter.

Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC announces new report

The Ux Consulting Company (UxC) is pleased to announce the availability of a special report on Nuclear Reactor Technology Assessments. This in-depth study provides nuclear reactor technology assessments and overall evaluations of the major reactor designs currently available in the world. The decision of which reactor design to pursue is an extremely important one and must be based on many factors, such as the robustness of the technology, the constructability of the plant, the plant economics - both initial and operating, the type of fuel used, the ability to license and regulate, among a variety of other considerations.

UxC's SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL - UxC is not only expanding its geopolitical coverage of the market, but is also now covering more of the fuel cycle. In June 2007, UxC began to publish SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL, two leading newsletters dealing with the backend of the fuel cycle.

Both publications cover major fuel cycle and backend-related conferences in detail. In addition, UxC can advise clients in issues related to the back end of the fuel cycle, including profiles of utility spent fuel storage facilities and plans, country profiles, vendor profiles, etc.


News Headlines
Five-Party Arrangement Extends Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant Enrichment Operations (May 15, 2012) USEC : USEC's agreement with Energy Northwest and the U.S. Department of Energy to keep Paducah gaseous diffusion plant open for one more year.
Energy Northwest, BPA Save Ratepayers Millions Through Nuclear Fuel Purchase Acrobat (May 15, 2012) Energy Northwest : Energy Northwest press release on its agreement with USEC, the Tennessee Valley Authority and the DOE.
Critical time for UK government and industry (May 15, 2012) World Nuclear News : How UK government implements electricity market reforms will be vital for future of new nuclear build.
UK nuclear new build units unlikely to buy Horizon-govt (May 15, 2012) Reuters : Britain's Energy Minister discusses expectation that new investor may buy Horizon.
Cameco Announces Agreement to Acquire NUKEM (May 14, 2012) Cameco : Press release discusses agreement to acquire NUKEM.
Cameco to buy nuclear fuel broker Nukem Energy (May 14, 2012) Reuters : Cameco to purchase NUKEM from Advent International.
Power crisis 'can be averted': Govt says restarting Oi reactors key to preventing blackouts (May 10, 2012) Yomiuri Shimbun : Japan projections show potential for restart of Oi nuclear reactors.
Gov't forces choice on local bodies: restart nuclear reactors or face power restrictions (May 11, 2012) Mainichi : Japan issues energy calculations on plan to avert power shortages.
Nuclear Revival in U.K. Planned as Cameron Spurs Profits (May 9, 2012) Bloomberg : UK releases new measures to increase profitability of nuclear plants.
Brazil Not To Build New Nuclear Plants At Least Until 2020 (May 10, 2012) RTTNews : Brazil not to build additional reactors until after 2020.

Today's Lighter Side

Little Brother?

A mother asked her small son what he would like for his birthday. “I’d like a little brother,” the boy said.

“Oh my, that’s such a big wish,” said the mother. “Why do you want a little brother?”

“Well,” said the boy, “there’s only so much I can blame on the dog.”

UxW18-50 Dec 13, 2004


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StoreFUEL

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