Aug 21, 2014
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What's inside the
August 18, 2014
Cover: The Enrichment “Noligopoly” and the Decline in SWU Prices
Hokuriku Electric seeks approval to restart Shika 2
Belgian reactor to remain offline at least through end of 2014
TVO wants more time for Olkiluoto 4 decision-in-principle
TVA reports that Watts Bar 2 is over 90% complete
SCE&G announces delay in completion of Summer 2 & 3
AREVA to replace six steam generators at Koeberg
USEC reports net loss for Q2 and first half of 2014
Potential strike looms at Cameco’s McArthur River/Key Lake
Australia expected to sign uranium deal with India
Energy Fuels reports Q2 quarterly production results
Berkeley reports drill results from Zona 7 at Retortillo
Anfield to acquire Uranium One mill and conventional properties
Fission reports drill results at PLS
Forum reports NW Athabasca JV drill results
The Market
UxC: Consulting, Data Services, and Publications
The industry's leading source of
Consulting, Data Services
& Publications on the
Global Nuclear Fuel
Cycle Markets
Nuclear Industry Value Chain
Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Market Outlook

Recent Special Reports

2013 Nuclear Fuel Market Review - Mar 2014

Analysis of USEC Notice for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy - Jan 2014

End of an Era: The HEU Agreement and Beyond - Dec 2013

Nuclear Industry Value Chain 2013 - Nov 2013

Enrichment Supplier Assessments - Oct 2013

Market Outlook Report Essays

UMO End of the HEU Agreement & New Market Fundamentals - Q2 2014

CMO Long-Term Market Fundamentals - Dec 2013

EMO An Estimate of Excess EUP/SWU Inventories - Q2 2014

FMO The Death of Competition? - Jul 2014

NPO 2013 Q4 Nuclear Power Market Trends and Analysis - Q4 2013

UxC Policy Watch

Aug 7, 2014 Russia Sanctions Update - August 2014

Jul 31, 2014 Federal Court Denies ConverDyn’s Request for Preliminary Injunction

Jul 25, 2014 Russia Sanctions Update - July 2014

Jul 9, 2014 ConverDyn Files Motion for a Preliminary Injunction Against DOE Uranium Transfers

Jun 27, 2014 Policy Watch Update - Q2 2014

UxC Meeting Summaries

Feb 26, 2014 Powering Asia with the Atom: ANBP-2014

Feb 5, 2014 10th Annual Platts Conference: Preserving Nuclear’s Future

Nov 10, 2013 2013 ANS Winter Meeting: Americans, JUST DO IT!

Oct 22, 2013 Nuclear Construction Summit: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Oct 6, 2013 2013 NEI-IUFS: Slugging Along in San Antonio

UxC's Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) highlights recent developments and their impact on the market.

Each quarterly report, at over 130 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This quarter’s essay, “End of the HEU Agreement & New Market Fundamentals” estimates how much uranium is derived on an annual basis via underfeeding and tails re-enrichment from Russia’s excess SWU capacity following the end of the HEU Agreement and in the post-Fukushima market. Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

Uranium Suppliers Annual

Sometimes referred to as "The Uranium Bible", the Uranium Suppliers Annual contains comprehensive data and information on all of the world's uranium suppliers, including detailed sections on planned producers and junior/exploration companies.

Whether you are a utility, producer, trader, or investor, the Uranium Suppliers Annual provides the basis for understanding potential future developments surrounding the availability of supply, particularly since uranium production has continued to be sub-par against a backdrop of growing demand. In light of the increasing volatile nature of the uranium market, primary and potential suppliers are continuously re-evaluating their properties and future production plans, as well as expanding exploration programs where economically feasible.

Uranium Production Cost Study

The Uranium Production Cost Study complements UxC’s Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) and Uranium Supplier’s Annual (USA) in identifying where expanded and new uranium supply will come from among 116 worldwide projects to meet future nuclear fuel demand through 2030.

UxC's Conversion Market Outlook (CMO) details an often overlooked market.

Each bi-annual report, at over 120 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This year's essay entitled “Long-Term Market Fundamentals,” which reviews the key issues impacting the market, the ways that both buyers and sellers of conversion are approaching the market, and the long-term outlook for supply and demand. We conclude with an examination of the long-term future for prices, with a new analysis of the likely future course for long-term contract prices of conversion. Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC's Enrichment Market Outlook (EMO) Covers a Dynamic and Key Segment of the Overall Nuclear Fuel Market.

Enrichment developments not only are important for understanding the enrichment market, but are also crucial for understanding the future progression of the uranium market. Since uranium and enrichment are substitutes, increases in enrichment supply can have a major impact on the future demand for uranium. Each quarterly report, at over 110 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This issue’s essay, “An Estimate of Excess EUP/SWU Inventories,” addresses the question of excess EUP/SWU inventories around the world and how they might enter the market in the future. These estimates are made largely on the basis of publically available information on nuclear fuel inventories from various sources, along with our estimates of the portion of these inventories that are EUP and, of that, the amount that may be considered excess. Premature reactor shutdowns and delays in restarts have made the buildup of excess inventories a growing consideration in the market, and the essay represents our attempt to quantify these supplies. Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC's Enrichment Suppliers Assessments (ESA)

USEC recently declared its intention to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and re-emerge as a leaner, new enrichment company. What will happen to the American Centrifuge Project (ACP)? Where will USEC find the funding for the ACP? How will the new USEC survive until an ACP plant can be built? These are just a few of the multitude of questions raised by the USEC bankruptcy announcement. UxC’s USEC Watch subscriber service follows all of USEC’s activities in depth and analyzes their consequences for the company and also for their impact on the enrichment market as a whole. Learn more about the ESA.

USEC Watch: Analysis of USEC Notice for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

This report is focused on in-depth descriptions and analyses of the major uranium enrichment suppliers, their sources of Separative Work Units (SWUs) supply , and the enrichment technologies they employ. Details on each enricher include, among other items: Company history, Ownership & Organizational structure, Financial status & performance, Importance of enrichment to its overall business, Current and future sources of enrichment supplies, Market strategy, Client base and contract portfolio, and Direct impact of any trade restrictions on its enrichment business. Learn more about USEC Watch.

End of an Era: The HEU Agreement and Beyond

“End of an Era: The HEU Agreement and Beyond,” examines the HEU deal from an historical standpoint, and addresses the impact of the deal’s end on the parties to the deal and nuclear fuel market as a whole. In this regard, the essay takes a close look at the fate the Russian enrichment plants, Russia’s enrichment industry after the HEU Agreement, and the fate of USEC. Looking forward, we turn to examining the likelihood of follow-on to the HEU Agreement as well as the prospects for the SWU and uranium markets in the post-HEU era. Get more information.

UxC and its consultant, Joel Gingold, with over forty years experience in the fuel fabrication industry, have prepared a comprehensive and up-to-date Fabrication Market Outlook (FMO) report addressing the commercial, economic, institutional, and technical aspects of this sector. Fabrication differs greatly from other steps in the fuel cycle. Its high technical content, need for regulatory approval, and the restriction of fuel assemblies to specific reactors require a unique approach to its analysis. To those with little knowledge of fuel fabrication and its markets, this report can serve as a primer providing a solid background and understanding of how its markets function. To those knowledgeable in the fundamentals, it offers analyses of a variety of its aspects based on several decades of participation. To those who are actively involved in the industry, it supplies additional insights to assist in the improvement of existing nuclear fuel programs and in the development of new ones.

UxC has prepared a new special report to provide an overview of the zirconium alloy market for the nuclear industry entitled Nuclear Grade Zirconium Alloy Market Outlook. Nuclear-grade zirconium alloys and products are used in the fabrication of fuel assemblies, which are used in the vast majority of nuclear reactor designs either currently operating, under construction, or planned around the world. As the nuclear renaissance takes hold in countries all over the globe, many questions about the international nuclear supply chain have arisen. The supply of nuclear-grade zirconium – from zircon mineral sand through the cladding and components used in finished fuel assemblies – has also not escaped this scrutiny. Therefore, the primary objective of this report is to factually and analytically approach the current and expected future direction of the nuclear-grade zirconium market to help formulate clear conclusions about how producers of fuel assemblies for nuclear reactors will obtain the necessary zirconium for their finished products.

This year’s in-depth topical essay entitled "The Death of Competition?" pulls together the competition-related portions of previous essays, adds additional analyses and insights and presents a comprehensive assessment of the present declining trends in competition, how the fabrication markets may develop in future years and what (if anything) can be done to enhance competition in various global markets.

UxC's Nuclear Power Outlook (NPO)

Each quarterly report, at over 200 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long-term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near-term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

This quarter’s Chapter 1 – Nuclear Power Market Trends and Analysis starts with our annual “Year in Review” that focuses on analyzing the key developments and nuclear market trends from 2013. Our “In the Spotlight” section this quarter provides an in-depth look at China’s rising reactor export ambitions and prospects for more developments in this area in the future. Lastly, we identify who is up and who is down within the global nuclear industry over the past year.

Also included are a review of recent market activity and a look a current and prospective activity, and a detailed listing of reactor and production developments that promise to shape the future market.

UxC Analyzes Reactor Technology

In March 2013, UxC issued a new special report on the SMR Market Outlook (SMO). This 450 page report provides comprehensive commercial and technical analysis of the overall SMR market and detailed reviews of the leading SMR designs in the world. The SMO report is the result of UxC’s continuing efforts to provide its global clients with insightful products and services in the SMR sector. It includes a global SMR market review along with a global outlook for SMR market developments as well as deployment forecasts to 2040.

In December 2010, UxC issued a groundbreaking special report on Small Modular Reactor Assessments (SMRA). This report’s objective is to provide technical, economic, and other commercial assessments of each of the SMR designs being developed in the world today. In addition, the report provides an in-depth discussion of the broader issues impacting SMRs, such as the keys to successful deployment for SMRs, comparisons with larger reactor technologies, specific applications for SMRs, and the broader issues facing potential customers for SMRs.

In August 2008, UxC completed a special report on Nuclear Reactor Technology Assessments. This in-depth study provides nuclear reactor technology assessments and overall evaluations of the major reactor designs currently available in the world. The decision of which reactor design to pursue is an extremely important one and must be based on many factors, such as the robustness of the technology, the constructability of the plant, the plant economics - both initial and operating, the type of fuel used, the ability to license and regulate, among a variety of other considerations.

UxC's SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL - UxC is not only expanding its geopolitical coverage of the market, but is also now covering more of the fuel cycle. In June 2007, UxC began to publish SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL, two leading newsletters dealing with the backend of the fuel cycle.

Both publications cover major fuel cycle and backend-related conferences in detail. In addition, UxC can advise clients in issues related to the back end of the fuel cycle, including profiles of utility spent fuel storage facilities and plans, country profiles, vendor profiles, etc.


Headline News
Westinghouse, Blue Castle Working to Bring Benefits of AP1000® Plant Technology to Western US (Aug 21, 2014) Westinghouse Electric Company : Westinghouse signs a memorandum of understanding with Blue Castle Holdings to develop two AP1000 reactors at Green River area in Utah.
Energy secretary pushes for nuclear power (Aug 20, 2014) Associated Press : Energy Secretary Moniz gave a speech about the importance of nuclear energy when he stopped in Idaho as part of his weeklong tour.
Two Belgian nuclear reactors may be closed permanently - state media (Aug 20, 2014) Reuters : Belgian state media says that Tihange 2 and Doel 3 may be closed until spring and perhaps permanently shut down.
Georgia regulators approve nuclear plant spending for Plant Vogtle (Aug 19, 2014) Associated Press : Georgia Public Service Commission approves the spending plan for Plant Vogtle expansion.
Tokyo Weighs Written Guarantee of Nuclear-Plant Safety (Aug 19, 2014) Wall Street Journal (Subscription Required) : Japanese government considers offering a written statement to guarantee nuclear plant safety.
17,000 comments sent to regulator on nuclear plant screening report (Aug 19, 2014) Kyodo News : Nuclear Regulation Authority reviews a draft safety report and will analyze related public comments.
USEC Noteholders Voted to Approve Plan of Reorganization (Aug 18, 2014) USEC Inc. : USEC noteholders vote in favor of Plan of Reorganization.
France's Areva to refit South African nuclear plant (Aug 18, 2014) Reuters : AREVA has been contracted to replace six steam generators at Koeberg plant.
Belgian Doel 4 nuclear reactor closed till year-end (Aug 14, 2014) Reuters : GDF Suez confirms outage at Doel-4 was caused by sabotage.
Portland firm eyed for nuclear plant in Washington (Aug 14, 2014) KING5 News : A Washington nuclear task force chair discusses his interests in NuScale Power and small modular reactor technology.

Today's Lighter Side

A man lay spread out over three seats in the second row of a movie theater. As he lay there breathing heavily, an usher came over and said, “That’s very rude of you, sir, taking up three seats. Didn’t you learn any manners? Where did you come from?”

The man looked up helplessly and said, “The balcony!”

UxW14-29 Jul 17, 2000


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