For a long time, the uranium market was dominated by the liquidation of inventories, both commercial and military in origin. As a result, price was depressed and production and exploration efforts were cut back. Over the same period that production was stagnant, reactor requirements were increasing as utilities were able to increase their capacity factors and uprate their reactors. More recently, new demand is emerging from China, India, and Russia, as these countries seek to dramatically increase their nuclear power capabilities.
As a result of these changes, the excesses of the past market have disappeared. As demand increased and supply disruptions appeared, inventories were consumed at a faster rate. Higher prices and higher demand have changed market attitudes from complacency about future supply to concern. In addition to this transition from an inventory-driven market to a production-driven one, the U.S. dollar has depreciated against producer currencies, meaning the price has to push even higher to find an equilibrium level.
The market that we now find ourselves in is like no other in the history of uranium. Production is far below requirements, which are growing. HEU supplies and the enrichment of tails material make up a large portion of supply, but the fate of these supply sources is uncertain. Supply has become more concentrated, making the market more vulnerable to disruptions if there are any problems with a particular supply source. Another source of market vulnerability is the relatively low level of inventory held by buyers and sellers alike.
So far, this transition has been subject to considerable price volatility. The question is whether this volatility will continue. This will depend on the procurement, inventory, and investment decisions that are made in anticipation to and in reaction to the developing trends. Will governments get into the act, and how might this affect the future market? What other surprises may there be?
The UxC Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) report is designed to answer these questions and others by examining developments and discerning trends in the market, including the likely future course of price under different scenarios. The entire report is updated quarterly, so that subscribers have the most current information and analyses on which to base their decisions. Updates of leading market indicators are also provided on a monthly basis, so you’re never too out of touch with the market.
Special Issue Offer
Each quarter, UxC releases a new Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) that contains detailed up-to-date analysis on the uranium market.
UxC makes available any individual report for sale as a stand alone report.
In each UMO, topical essays are devoted to topics such as current market developments, major market events, and long-term market trends.
This quarter’s essay, “The Emerging Production Cost Gap,” discusses the potential factors that may lead to a production cost gap comparable to the price run-up of 2003 through 2007. While uranium supplies are abundant today, the current low-price environment and lack of term contracting could be setting the stage for production costs to rise significantly in the 2021-2023 period, especially as resource depletion begins setting in.
A table of contents has been provided for your review.
UxC makes this quarter's UMO available as a special single report order
at a rate of US$5,000.00. An online order form has been provided.
Please note that this special offer only covers this quarter's UMO report.
It does not include services associated with a full year's subscription as discussed below: such as three additional quarterly reports,
the monthly leading spot price indicator updates, and access to UxC's Subscriber Services website.
The Uranium Market Outlook is a quarterly report on the uranium market that examines recent and prospective spot and long-term
contract market activity, supply and demand trends, supplier developments, and the outlook for
prices over the short and long term. The UMO also includes a topical essay on important
developments that are shaping the market and detailed findings from UxC's proprietary indicator
system that analyzes trends in key factors influencing future prices.
Starting with the Q2 2009 UMO report, UxC also includes uranium demand
forecasts based on the proprietary UxC Requirements Model (URM).
Please see our product flier in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.
- The report starts with a color executive summary, with an extra copy to circulate, providing a concise overview of the current market situation. An advance copy of the executive summary is now e-mailed to subscribers.
- Chapter 1 contains a topical essay that addresses key events and their potential impact on the market. Examples of past essays are listed here.
- In Chapter 2 - Recent Contracting Review, recent spot and long-term market activity over the previous quarter is reviewed, and current contract terms and conditions are summarized.
- Chapter 3 - Requirements and Demand Outlook looks at recent developments affecting reactor requirements in the U.S. and non-U.S. markets, along with the current UxC forecast of Western requirements. This section also examines the spot demand outlook over the next three years, and the long-term contract demand outlook.
- Chapter 4 - Production and Supply Outlook reviews recent production developments worldwide and the current status of major Western world projects. Also examined are inventory sellers and potential spot supply over the next three years.
- Following the production and supply chapter is Chapter 5 - Uranium Spot Market Indicators & Technical Analysis, which presents a detailed update of two sets of leading indicators designed by UxC to quantify market factors that are affecting price outlook in the near-term and two years forward, along with a technical analysis of near-term price movements. Included with a subscription to the quarterly report are monthly updates of UxC's near-term price indicators, a predictive tool used to gauge potential spot movements two to three months forward.
- In the final chapter of this report, Chapter 6 - Market Outlook and Price Forecast, the market is analyzed in terms of a one-year and intermediate-term perspectives, and ten-year forecasts are provided for the uranium spot prices. The near-term availability of supply by price, potential spot market transactions, EUP and FSU market trends, technical analysis of spot prices, and bullish and bearish arguments for price movements are also presented in this chapter.
- The report contains three appendices. The first appendix, Appendix A - Glossary & Acronyms, contains a listing and definition of industry specific terms used in this and other UxC reports. Appendix B - Forecasting Methodology details the various methodologies used in this report to forecast price, supply, demand, and market price indicators. The last appendix, Appendix C - Statistical Review, contains tables and figures that provide additional and expanded data to those presented in the body of the report. It is designed to be used as a standard reference source providing both historical and current market data.
Who should read this report
- Fuel buyers
- Policy makers